Donald Trump’s Second Term: A Frank Analysis

Donald Trump has once again won the election to become the 47th President of the United States of America. This election has been unusual and interesting. Although there is still time before he takes the oath on January 20, 2025, the whole world is speculating about his future presidency.

US elections are different. Though the people vote directly for their choice for the president, the winner is not decided on the total accumulated vote, or the popular vote. There are 50 states in the USA, and each state is allocated certain electoral votes based on the population of individual states. There are a total of 538 electoral votes, and the candidate who wins 270, i.e., more than half the electoral votes, is declared the winner. It is, therefore, possible that a candidate wins more popular votes and even wins in more states and yet loses the presidential race.

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This needs to be understood. The candidate who wins in a certain state gets all the electoral votes of that state (no matter what margin he/she wins). The total count of electoral votes of all the states won by a candidate is the final vote won by that candidate. For example, if a candidate wins a state with a lesser population, such as Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, etc., he/she will get only 3 electoral votes against one state. However, if the candidate wins California, he/she will get 54 electoral votes for one state, which is better than winning many states with fewer electoral votes.

This election has also been unusual in a way that all the surveys were predicting a very close contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Some even put Harris in the lead. But Trump not only won both the electoral votes and the popular votes, but won by a big margin as well. This shows that the media and surveys cannot be entirely trusted—they have their own biases and inaccuracies.

It also appears from the results of the elections that the voters vote primarily on internal/domestic issues; foreign policy matters less to the voters. Although it can be said that the Ukraine and Palestine conflicts may have dented the prospects of the Democrats.

The main election promise that seems to have given Trump the advantage is the economy. Trump accused his opponents and predecessors of the downfall of the economy and raised the slogan, “making America great again.” His assertion that instead of spending tax-payers money on wars in other regions, it is better to spend it on the welfare of the US citizens resonated well with the American citizens, who were already tired of the ongoing wars and falling economy.

Another major issue for him has been illegal immigrants. I think he is not wrong in saying that US resources should be spent on US citizens instead of illegal immigrants usurping the rights of Americans.

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Trump is generally considered biased against the non-whites, and sometimes he fails to hide his contempt for the so-called coloured races. It was, therefore, believed that he would get fewer votes from the non-whites and also from the female voters because Kamala Harris is a female and her policies resonated better with that group. However, surprisingly, compared to the last time, he got more votes from the female and non-white community and his share of the Anglo-Saxon vote dropped slightly.

There is another trend called populism in politics, which appeals to the common person that the established elite is not sincere and has been corrupt and usurpers, and I am the one who represents your interests and will liberate you from their clutches. This formula has worked well in many countries, including the USA, India, and Pakistan. Once the masses are convinced that a certain person is “anti-elite,” they are willing to ignore all his/her faults and rally behind the self-proclaimed liberator. Trump too managed to exploit this sensitivity of the common people.

An impression was also created that the US establishment is against Trump. However, the Jewish lobby likes Trump, and, in US politics, Jewish money and influence matter a lot.

One thing can be said without hesitation: both the main candidates, Kamal Harris and Donald Trump, were not worthy of being President of a country like the USA. And this, in my opinion, is the biggest drawback of democracy. The people rarely get a choice to select a better person. In a democracy, a candidate’s character and credentials are less important. What matters is the number of votes a person can garner, by hook or by crook, by wheeling and dealing. For this reason, I am against the “Capitalist Democracy”. We have better systems to select/elect more competent and worthy leadership in Islam as well as in the communist system. In China, it is not even remotely possible to elect a person with lesser credentials, just based on popularity or money. It is no secret how much money is spent on democratic elections.

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The world is going through turbulent times with major changes taking place in the geopolitical landscape. War, conflict, unrest, uncertainty, and instability are the hallmarks of the current international order in transition. A lot of this is because of the policies of the sole superpower, the USA, and the conduct of the USA in the coming days will continue to have its effects on the entire globe.

While Trump has spoken against US involvement in wars, many analysts think that international security may be at risk with Trump at the helm. In my opinion, Trump is not against wars, but he is against spending US money on wars. He would be happy to support wars as long as the money is spent by others and US weapons and equipment are being sold. He has, therefore, consistently asked the Europeans to increase their defense budgets. He also tells the Arabs that if they need security from the US, they should spend more money. In short, Trump is not anti-war; he is just not willing to spend in the name of goodwill or alliances. He will try every bit to squeeze money out of friends and foes alike. It is clear from the team he has selected, the majority of whom are known hawks, that in no way it can be regarded as a peace-loving team.

Apparently, Europe and Ukraine do not have the money to counter Russia. In such a scenario, since the US may not be willing to spend, the logical solution could be the end of the war in Ukraine, even if it goes in the favour of Russia. And, therefore, Russia will try to consolidate its successes in Ukraine before Trump takes over, so they are able to negotiate from a position of strength with maximum advantage.

Similarly, Israel has an upper hand in the Gaza genocide and the larger Middle East conflict. Israel has almost killed the entire leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah and destroyed the administrative and economic infrastructure in Lebanon, Syria, and particularly Gaza. Almost the entire population of Gaza is without homes. Ceasefire at this stage only means Israel’s victory. It is clear that Trump will pressurize Egypt and the Arabs to achieve a ceasefire favorable to Israel. And, therefore, Israel has already accelerated its atrocities in Gaza and Lebanon to maximize its gains before Trump’s takeover.

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It is hard to predict the future, but it appears that Trump would prefer to cease the Ukraine and Gaza war and pay more attention to China and Iran. He will favour economic rather than kinetic warfare, for which he will need support from India and East Asian countries, to squeeze China. India’s significance will likely increase for the US during the Trump era. One of the longest and early calls of Trump after winning the elections, reportedly, has been to Netanyahu and Modi—his old friend. Trump may also attempt to revive his contacts with the North Korean strongman, Kim Jong Un, and will try to woo him (though unsuccessfully) out of the China camp.

Pressure is likely to increase on the countries around the US. Trump does not like Justin Trudeau, the prime minister of the US’s close friend and ally Canada; it will be interesting to see how the two leaders will cope during his second term. The countries of Central and South America are particularly vulnerable. Partly because of the immigrant issue and partly because of the ingress of China in that region.

Unlike the popular opinion being expressed by the elite in Pakistan that “Pakistan is not on US radar,” I feel that Pakistan will come under pressure during the Trump regime. Two minor stimuli could be Trump’s likeness to Modi and Imran, but most importantly, our relations with China and Afghanistan. The current regime in Pakistan will be under tremendous stress on how to balance relations with China and maintain progress on CPEC. This will require political stability and strong governance, both of which continue to elude Pakistan for the time being.